Daily Briefs


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16 February 2024, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #758

UK Economy in recession, data shows slowdown in all major sectors

Germany becomes third-largest economy as recession drags Japan down; EU member states demands for an extra decade to reach air pollution targets

EM in Brief
By Alka Bala

FRANCE
Birthplace citizenship withdrawn on the French Island of Mayotte
On 15 February, Gérald Darmanin, France’s Interior Minister announced that people on Mayotte, a French Island in the Indian Ocean will no longer enjoy the automatic right to citizenship by birth. The island which has been a county of the French Republic since 1841 has been experiencing mass immigration. Asylum requests in Mayotte reached a record high of 142,500 in 2023. Mayotte’s proximity to the African islands of Comoros has sparked the “small boat” problem, with hundreds of migrants arriving every week to seek asylum in the French Island nation. However, there have been criticisms from the political left as they believe it breaches the “Republican principle of universality,” and consider droit du sol- (right of the soil) birthplace citizenship as an essential French value. People of Mayotte have opposed the influx of migrants by setting up roadblocks by "citizens' committees." They called for measures to stop this immigration. Estelle Youssouffa, a Mayotte Member of the Parliament said: “If not, we will be perpetually the prisoners of our geography.” Darmanin believes that abolishing birthplace citizenship would reduce the lure of migrants. (Hugh Schofield, “French citizenship row engulfs Indian Ocean island of Mayotte,” BBC, 15 February 2024)
 
ITALY 

Danilo Calvani becomes the face of radical farmers’ movement
On 14 February, Politico reported on Danilo Calvani, a 61-year-old farmer who has camped outside the capital along with his union, Betrayed Farmers C.R.A plan to hold protest against the government by occupying Circus Maximus. There has been a shift among the farmers’ unions in the current movements. large farmers’ unions have been sidelined by the smaller ones that use radical methods and messaging and are currently representing the protesting farmers in Italy. Calvani accused Coldiretti of being the “most corrupt agricultural union, that serves only their interests and aligns with multinationals.” Whereas members of Betrayed Farmers C.R.A. have resorted to Coldiretti flags. Calvani also expressed his disapproval of the government conducting dialogue with unions like Coldiretti instead of talking to the farmers. Matteo Salvini, leader of the right-wing Lega (League) party visited the farmers and reiterated League’s commitment to Italian farmers against the politicians of Brussels. (Alessandro Ford, “The furious farmer taking on Italy’s agri giants,” Politico, 14 February 2024)
 
GERMANY

Foreign Minister Baerbock visits Israel to push for a ceasefire
On 14 February, The Times of Israel reported the arrival of Annalena Baerbock, German Foreign Minister in Israel, for her meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister, Isaac Herzog Israeli President and Foreign Minister Israel Katz. Her fifth visit to Israel since 07 October comes with the agenda to push for a ceasefire, as Israel plans to continue with its operations in Rafah. Earlier on X, Baerbock wrote about the 1.3 million people in Rafah seeking protection and stated that an Israeli offensive “on Rafah would be a humanitarian catastrophe.” She indicated the need for a pause in fighting and would talk about the hostage release and humanitarian situation in Gaza with the Israeli counterparts. (Lazer Berman, “German FM arrives in Israel, expected to push Israeli officials for a ceasefire,” The Times of Israel,  14 February 2024)
 

Microsoft: EUR 3.3 billion investment in AI and data centre infrastructure 
On 16 February, Deutsche Welle reported on the largest EUR 3.3 billion investment by tech giant Microsoft in Germany highlighting the latter’s commitments to an open economy. The investment would double the existing capacity of Microsoft’s “AI and data centre infrastructure” in Germany and boost its cloud computing applications. Brad Smith, Microsoft Vice Chair mentioned the lack of AI skills in Germany, and that the investment would allow for training of 1.2 million people with new AI capabilities. Olaf Scholz, German Chancellor dubbed this investment as a “commitment to progress, to growth, to modernity,” and hoped it would revive the German economy. (“Germany: Microsoft to invest €3.3 billion in AI capacities,” Deutsche Welle, 15 February 2024)
 
GREECE

Bill on same-sex marriage and adoption of children gets Parliament approval
On 16 February, according to Deutsche Welle, the Greece parliament voted in favour of the bill on same-sex marriage becoming the first orthodox Christian country to legalise the civil marriage of same-sex couples. The bill was approved with a cross-party majority vote of 176- 124. Kyriakos Mitsotakis, the Greek Prime Minister remarked on the bill's approval as “a milestone for human rights.” The bill also guaranteed the adoption rights for same-sex couples. However, the law does not allow for surrogacy parenthood for male couples, for allows it for women who cannot have children due to health issues. The bill received cross-party support from the centre-right New Democracy party, four left-wing parties, including the opposition party Syriza. However, Archbishop Ieronymos, head of the Orthodox Church of Greece, condemned the law as a “new reality that seeks only to corrupt the homeland's social cohesion.” (“Greece legalizes same-sex marriage,” Deutsche Welle, 16 February 2024)
 
THE UK

Economy in recession, data shows slowdown in all major sectors
On 15 February, the BBC reported the UK economy falling into recession as data from 2023, indicated an economic slump over the last two quarters with a decline of 0.3 per cent between October and December. In the previous quarter between July to September, the economy shrank by 0.1 per cent. Overall growth for the UK economy in 2023 was only 0.1 per cent. According to the Office for National Statistics, major sectors were affected, such as retail, healthcare, education, manufacturing and construction. Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor of the Exchequer is exploring means to reduce public spending to allow for tax cuts in the Budget for 06 March. However, Ruth Gregory, Deputy chief economist at Capital Economics remarked that "this recession is as mild as they come." This sets as a drawback to the pledges made by Rishi Sunak, UK’s Prime Minister who assured for growth, cutting down small boats and NHS waiting list. (Dearbail Jordan & Faisal Islam, “UK economy fell into recession after people cut spending,” BBC, 15 February 2024, James Fitzgerald, “Rishi Sunak’s five pledges in tatters as UK slides into recession,” Politico,15 February 2024)
 
REGIONAL

EU shelves water resilience plan against droughts and floods
On 15 February, Politico reported on the European Commission plan to present a "climate resistance" proposal on 12 March. This has been delayed as a large part of southern Europe, including Sardinia, Catalonia, and Sicily, is suffering from drought. According to the European Drought Observatory, about 17 per cent of the EU territory has been experiencing drought conditions since late January. On January 24, Virginijus Sinkevičius, the Environment Commissioner, wrote on X, “Gearing up our work for the essential upcoming Water Resilience initiative. It will be of [utmost] importance for the future of Spain as the country is heavily affected by droughts.” Clair Baffert, Senior Water Policy Officer at WWF’s European Office expressed her disappointment at the “irresponsible” decision by the Commission as floods and droughts are already affecting parts of Europe, at the “cost to communities, farmers, our food supply and nature.” (Leonie Cater and Zia Wiese, “EU puts water resilience plan on hold as drought grips Spain, Italy,” Politico, 15 February 2024)
 

EU member states demand for an extra decade to reach air pollution targets
On 15 February, Politico reported on the demand by European Union member states for a delay of ten years in meeting their air pollution targets. European Parliament has been pushing for speeding up of efforts by the nations to reach the 2050 zero pollution target and address the issue of 253,000 premature deaths in 2021 across the bloc. The negotiations on new targets are scheduled to take place on 20 February, and EU countries although agreeing on strict targets also request a 10-year extension to conform with the rules, allowing them for time till 2040, instead of 2030, to implement their strict air quality regulations. Countries believe that the European Parliament’s new targets are “not realistic.” The reason behind European Commission to push for the air pollution target was due to 59 infringement cases against member states for not reaching their air pollution targets, the top being Poland, Italy, Bulgaria, Romania and Portugal. Parliament intends to finalise the legislation on pollution targets before the elections in June and next set of discussion is scheduled for 20 February. (Louise Guillot, “EU countries demand 10 extra years to meet air pollution targets,” Politico, 15 February 2024)
 
INTERNATIONAL

Germany becomes third-largest economy as recession drags Japan down
On 15 February, according to Deutsche Welle, Germany overtook Japan as the world’s third-largest economy as the latter fell into a technical recession. In 2023, Germany’s gross domestic product (GDP) accounted for USD 4.5 trillion, whereas Japan’s GDP stood at USD 4.2 trillion. The yen had a seven per cent depreciation in 2023 and had an 18 per cent slump compared to the dollar in 2022 and 2023, according to the Bank of Japan. India with its 1.4 billion population comprising of a youth majority and higher growth rates is projected the overtake both nations as they face issues of labour shortages, aging populations and falling birth rates. According to Takuji Aida, chief economist at Credit Agricole, the Japanese economy could shrink further in the fourth quarter due to slowed global growth, weak domestic demand, and the effects of the New Year's earthquake, and the Bank of Japan would downgrade its upcoming GDP forecasts. (“Recession in Japan makes Germany third largest economy,” Deutsche Welle, 15 February 2024)

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